Kozminski Techblog

“There are only two emotions on Wall Street – fear and greed” – William Lefevre

Trading robots were created in order to eliminate the psychological element of trading. They analyze the market and open the position automatically without any help from human beings. Basically, it is a computer programme making its own decisions based on collected data such as the volume of the market, trend direction and trend power, graph patterns, fake pumps and dumps etc. 

Although, trading robots should not be regarded as a “holy grail”. It is because the market is way more unpredictable than most people may assume. Robots are seeking the rationalization of the price change, while the price is trying to be as tricky as possible. So most professionals use such robots as an auxiliary tool for comprehensive analysis of the market but not as a main decisive factor. 

It is worth mentioning that robots are quite adjustable. That means every trader may adapt the programme and tailor it to his own needs. For example, every trader determines the lower acceptable loss (the price where the loss is not so considerable) after crossing which the position should be automatically closed. This is due to the volatility of markets: prices are going up and down, sometimes it makes rapid movements but then returns to the starting position. To handle all these risks traders use the stop-loss tool. And of course, robots allow traders to settle exclusive rules regulating risk management. 

All the robots are written in MetaQuotes Language (MQL) which is a programming language used specifically to create automated trading robots and market indicators. That gives a great advantage for users because it means that every single person may not only buy robots but create them as well. 

Why do robots mistake? The answer is that usually they do not really predict, they rather interpret the chaos occurring in the market. So they do not outstrip the market they rather leg behind it. Robots try to find bonds between various factors and use algorithms to make a decision. But no algorithm (at least now) can predict that Elon Musk, for example, will decide to post a tweet #bitcoin and the price of BTC will rocket to the historical maximum just in seconds. Actually, no one is capable of doing that except for Elon himself)

Let’s hit the trend and discuss the Clubhouse. 

The idea of Clubhouse is to make people gather in groups and exchange voice messages. Every group is thematic that allows users to find the appropriate circle of communication. This great advantage can be regarded as one of the possible reasons for the popularity of the Clubhouse. Another one is its artificial uniqueness. Social networks are full of memes regarding the invitation to the Clubhouse. There is a belief that it is a really complicated task to get invited. So basically the app is challenging human’s curiosity. 

I would say that it is quite a controversial approach to make people communicate. Dozens of users hate voice messages because they are not informative. Basically, developers of Clubhouse have taken a usual for everyone Messenger, deleted all functions except for voice messages and allowed users to choose a group according to their interest. And boom – the app is the most discussed one right now. The weird thing is that the idea is so old that it is difficult to believe in its huge success. Reddit offers almost similar service that is, as for me, more convenient. 

Another weird fact is that this innovation is basically a simplification of existing ones( Instagram, WhatsApp…). I mean that any other functions except for voice messages are not available. Is it really so weird? Actually not. Snapchat allows to exchange of photos and simple text messages, Tik Tok allows sharing videos and text messages as well. So simplification is a global trend in innovations. Apps are becoming more and more specific that attracts users. And that is the point of my blog. I want to discover whether we are going to keep using multitool apps, gadgets and all other tech products or using hundreds of simplified analogues. However, I have to mention that some other platforms like Instagram or YouTube are increasingly extending their functions. I mean YouTube has added stories and Instagram is a trading platform now as well. So we can see two trends: simplifications and expansion of functions. Which one will be overweight, that is the question. 

And of course, I do have to emphasize that Elon Musk and others have contributed to the success of the platform. Firstly the $12 million investment by Andreessen Horowitz Company then Elon Musk huge interest and some other celebrities have done Clubhouse a favour. So possibly that can be the key reason for its popularity. Basically, it is)

Clubhouse is a new social network based on voice communication. The form of this communication is something like a webinar. Several people are talking, the rest are listening but nobody sees anything. The difference from a regular podcast is that the listener can raise his hand and, if someone knows him by name, then he will be invited to speak and he will also talk on an equal basis with everyone. And then he can invite someone.

Nothing is recorded. This encourages candor. And many cool people pay attention to this. Musk, for example, was at the Clubhouse. It also attracts audiences to the new social network. He definitely sees potential in Clubhouse, 2 days ago he officially invited Vladimir Putin to join the conversation with him on Clubhouse via Musk’s Twitter. He even tweeted in Russian to increase the likelihood. So far, the official Kremlin hasn’t responded. This shows the interest and gives prospects for the development of Clubhouse.

The network is just being formed. No opinion leaders have appeared yet. And it’s funny to see how people are in it around the clock. You cannot do something else and at the same time talk in the Clubhouse.

The network is growing in popularity but is still quite small. In the States, it is already measured in millions of people, which is still not very much. Moreover, this is by and large a narrow audience, mostly geeks and people connected to IT.

Clubhouse reminds me of the Periscope app, which went viral in late 2015. It is the application of a live stream that lost its market dominance when Facebook integrated live streams into Instagram. In my opinion, Clubhouse has the same fate.

The final outcome is unpredictable. Maybe this is a new social network that will take its place there alongside Instagram, Facebook, TikTok. Facebook has already started making a clone. It was difficult to invent the format, but not to repeat it. It also possible that Clubhouse will become a niche application, for example, for education on discussion seminars because of its convenient interface. 

But it is not known who will win. So far, the original Clubhouse has attracted around $ 1 billion in rounds of investments. Moreover, its revenue is strictly zero.