I think it’s best to begin by considering the nature of work performed by most of the world’s population. The reality is that a very large fraction of our workforce is engaged in activities that are on some level routine, repetitive and predictable. Most workers face the same types of challenges again and again and most of their actions and decisions can be predicted, based on what they have done in the past.
At the same time, recent advances in robotics, artificial intelligence – and, especially, machine learning – suggest that much of this predictable work will be susceptible to automation over the next decades.
Of course, individuals with exceptional talent or a high level of knowledge are not likely to be threatened in the near future. However, for average workers engaged in more routine, predictable occupations, the impact could be quite dramatic.
Some people may argue that automation will simply rearrange jobs and damaged people will be retrained to perform new activities.
However, the question is whether progress will create enough new positions to absorb the victims of automation – and whether these new jobs will be accessible to people with average capability.
I think that it is unrealistic to expect that the bulk of the workforce can somehow be trained to take on roles that are beyond the reach of technology. My take on it is that technological progress will result in the automation of lower-skill jobs while creating more opportunities for those with higher education levels. Newly created occupations won’t be in the same countries and sectors like those that are destroyed. Therefore, this process will for sure generate “winners” and “losers and will destroy the job market leaving a lot of people behind!
Sources:
- https://www.zdnet.com/article/technology-is-about-to-destroy-millions-of-jobs-but-if-were-lucky-it-will-create-even-more/
- https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-ai-destroy-more-jobs-than-it-creates-over-the-next-decade-11554156299
- https://dobetter.esade.edu/en/automation-jobs?_wrapper_format=html